Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 4s4 seconds ago
Leading ‘out’ campaigner Boris Johnson says the margin by which the UK voted to leave the European Union was “not entirely overwhelming”
And there it is. Your Brexit ladies and gentlemen.
Chapel, I appreciate that you went to the effort to explain your point of view. I was contemplating whether to write a reply back regarding this subject. I will do this and will try to make this my last reply to clear things once and for all (from my perspective).
I never explicitly said it was better for the UK to leave EU under every circumstance. I focused on the negatives and the positives of this outcome and have mentioned repeatedly that I am interested to see what will happen in the future and what the overall outcome will be based on this decision. The difference between me and others is, I’m being open about this possibility and can see a side where it will work out well for the UK. Others are being emotional and not thinking about other facts besides of what they will lose out of it
It doesn’t work that way, EU giving the UK a similar or better deal. There are many other factors involved, I’m not going to touch on all of them. I will mostly focus on the trade agreements and what value there is in being a member of the EU Union. Being a member of the EU Union comes with great benefits, you can think of countries having your back when you are not doing well financially, the ability to travel freely between countries for work/travel/etc (without visum) and the trade agreements applying to all members of the EU Union cutting on the bureaucracy and uncertainty. There are other benefits, but I will keep this list short. The first benefit mostly benefits poor countries. Countries who are doing better financially are not getting gains out of this benefit. In fact, they pay other countries that are doing worse and lose money out of it. The second benefit does apply to the UK. I’m not sure how this can be substituted with the Brexit, this would be a big loss. With the third benefit, there are substitutes but it takes time and the substitutes are not 100% the same. Since the UK doesn’t fall under an umbrella for their trade agreements, they now have to create new agreements independently. This means that they have to create a new agreement with every country or a group of countries/regions. This takes time and the deal is not always the same (it can be worse or better) and there are no standards to follow. This is something they will have to do, it is part of the transition that will take years but it is possible to substitute it. This is how it normally goes. But, EU has different partners that are not part of the EU union. They still get similar trade and border benefits before becoming part of the EU union (I’m not sure about countries who don’t want to become part of the EU union). It is possible that the UK will make use of a similar agreement, but it depends on whether EU wants to make an example out of the UK. Logically I don’t expect EU to be difficult about this (whether as a body or individual countries who want to create new agreements). The economical gains are too strong to ignore for certain decisions. Eventually all involved parties will come around to create a trade agreement (in whatever form) to keep the balance of the economy as much as possible. I’m already reading reports about certain sectors in the Netherlands talking about making new agreements with the UK sectors.
Your example about import and export sounds similar to mine, only you’re already making predictions on how it will negatively impact the economy without any intervention. You touched on being modified briefly but that’s a big possibility. I would wait with making these type of predictions until it becomes more clear what will happen with the trade agreements exactly.
As mentioned already, there ARE (measurable) benefits to leaving EU but they will also lose benefits out of it. The question is, when looking through all the gains and losses, what is more worth it in the end? I think there is a possibility that the UK will turn out fine (read my other replies for that) but I can’t be 100% sure. That’s why we will need to wait and see how it will turn out. I have repeated this multiple times.
And lastly, my so-called bias or being selfish. The only time where I involved my bias or selfishness is when I brought up the example with the Netherlands and how these type of countries pay for others and cutting on costs to afford that. All the other things that I have mentioned? These are based on my studies and what I have learned. Contemporary economy (monetary and policy instruments, trade agreements, EU Union) and EU Law/International Law (I gave a very simplified version that is not exactly how I described but it has the same result in order to be brief about it on WYL).
Now, all of what I mentioned and talked about doesn’t take political parties into account. The parties who are ultra right and what they will do in the future. It seems that there are many who are more emotional because of this. They are afraid to be seen as racists and they are afraid of how this will affect the UK. This I give them right. This could be enough of a reason to ruin the UK. But, this is a different factor. It should not be associated with the UK exiting the EU union even though they have a lot to do with each other.
I hope that things are more clear with how I view things. I’m honestly surprised how some have reacted to what I have to say. I will try and be more careful with sharing my opinion on certain subjects. It might be better to not say anything in certain situations.
I don’t think that’s fair. This is an enormous decision to make, one that I think is reasonable to call a gamble. I don’t think it’s surprising to see people balk at the cost of it. It’s not even definitely clear that leaving the EU will be better for the economy. When the positives are uncertain and the negatives rather dire, does that not strike you as a bad deal?
What if you had a job that was paying you alright and had good benefits, enough to make a comfortable living. Would you gamble your future on a chance things could be better?
@RpgN It is a fact, however, that a large portion of the Leave vote (arguably most of the votes) was motivated by immigration, so I’d think that would give you more reason to oppose this referendum. I know you are focusing on economy, and not social ramifications, but if the far-right party takes control, then they will have problems in both the economy and turning into a highly nationalistic state. There have already been incidents of racists harassing Muslims and other ethnic people like the Polish and Romanians. Any improvements in the economy that the UK can achieve in the years to come will not happen if Boris Johnson becomes the next prime minister.
The European Union will not hold informal talks with the UK until it triggers Article 50 to leave, Germany, France and Italy have insisted.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel hosted talks with French President Francois Hollande and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in Berlin.
The leaders called for a “new impulse” to strengthen the EU.
All three leaders voiced regret at the UK’s vote to leave, with Mrs Merkel calling it a “very painful and regrettable decision”.
“We are in agreement that Article 50 of the European treaties is very clear - a member state that wishes to leave the European Union has to notify the European Council,” Mrs Merkel told the joint news conference at the German chancellery.
"There can’t be any further steps until that has happened. Only then will the European Council issue guidelines under which an exit will be negotiated.
“That means that, and we agree on this point, there will be neither informal nor formal talks on a British exit until the European Council has received the [UK’s] request for an exit from the European Union.”
President Hollande and Prime Minister Renzi emphasised the need to process the UK’s exit as quickly as possible and focus on the challenges facing the remaining 27 states such as fighting terrorism and strengthening the borders.
“Our responsibility is not to lose time in dealing with the question of the UK’s exit and the new questions for the 27,” Mr Hollande said. “There is nothing worse than uncertainty.”
“On the one hand we are sad but it is also the right time to write a new page in European history on what unites us,” said Mr Renzi.
I stumbled upon this opposing view: https://medium.com/@abarisser/why-brexit-was-not-a-mistake-5f4ae40fd15f#.zd8c1j2yg
I didn’t look at things like that. Even right now I don’t see why I have to look at it this way. In that, this decision will affect my job directly to the point that I’m going to get fired. Choosing the worst possible scenario and calling doom & gloom. I don’t think the impact will be that high. If I thought of it that way, then of course I would be furious.
Now we’re talking about racism and what this means from a social perspective. When it comes to this, I agree with you wholeheartedly. I would be against the referendum for what it means and not what it is. It is not the fault of the referendum that we have racists who use it for their own agenda. Racists saw it as a means to justify bullying others when that is not the intent of it. It’s a shame that certain decisions or opinions can’t be held with clear intentions when they are used for other reasons. I’m afraid that this might taint the referendum and its effectiveness as an economical tool.
That’s my point, you have to consider the worst possible scenario. You’re staking people’s livelhoods on the fact that you believe things will be better. It would be incredibly stupid and irresponsible not to.
Read this by an economics expert and tell me whether we’re triple fucked or just double fucked.
Alex, I’ll take Quadruple Fucked for 500, please.
Really? That’s like saying research is always reliable or a doctor recommending a product always knows best because he’s an expert. I’m not trying to discredit his tweets perse, but your comment doesn’t sound very rational at the moment.
Most of his figures shown are predictions for 2017 and 2018 which is NORMAL and not a reason to panic (yet). A lot of his points also has to do with the uncertainty that is still not addressed. This could change 380 degrees the moment the uncertainty is taken away after the negotiations have been had. Most analysts and businessmen talk in such extreme ways because they need to think fast, sell/buy stock, trade etc. in the short term.
My god, people like you need to chill.
That’s a good example of large businesses having zero chill. Investors are the same way. If the market just didn’t react to Brexit, things would’ve been fine.
But they did, and it’s bad.
Notice the words ‘‘threatening’’, ‘‘could go’’ and ‘‘might’’. It is normal for the market to react in the short term, long term could easily go both ways. But I give up, have fun throwing words like ‘‘they did, and it’s bad’’ and ‘’ the entire economy is fucked up’’.
I would have reacted exactly the same way as you if this subject wasn’t one of my studies and I was only reading the doom and gloom that was fed to me by the media.
This is happening right now. I don’t understand why you’re acting like this. Most people seem to agree, at least in the short term, that this is bad. I just don’t have this endless optimism you seem to have for the future or lack of compassion for people currently suffering from the economic effects. Sure, the market could right itself, but it’s not going to do so without a lot of harm along the way. I haven’t already decided the long term will be bad too, we don’t know if this will be good or bad in the end and that’s exactly what I’m reacting to.
Here’s some quick news from the last few days without sources cited (can’t be arsed to find what I read again). It’s only to give a different insight or perspective:
- The stock market from EU are ending with a profit after taking a hit for days due to the Brexit news. Even the British FTSE100 index has been climbing up steadily after the hit it took.
- Analysts are adjusting their predictions by saying that Brexit won’t impact the world as inicially feared but it will impact the UK mostly. The financial sector (banks) will get the most hit as analysts are thinking that British banks might move to other countries.
- While the pound value is still low, it has been stabilizing for the past few days. Showing good signs.
- There have been conflicting reports on how EU will handle the negotiations with the UK. Merkel has been saying that countries like the UK shouldn’t reap the benefits of a free market within EU, while you have other reports that suggest UK being too important to ‘ignore’.
- Merkel has also been saying on another article that EU Union should prepare something for countries who don’t wish to be part of EU Union.
- Several important figures have mentioned that they have failed to convince its citizens why it is important to be part of the EU Union. They should work harder and have less rules to show a stronger EU.
- Boris no longer being a candidate for a perlementary election, you have others trying to take his place. Besides Grove being one, you have a second candidate who was actually against the Brexit. She is finding more support at the moment.